Weekend Preview

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Alright, then. With two of the three league leaders in turmoil (Inter's midweek draw against Roma has them virtually locked up), things have gotten really interesting in the big leagues of Europe. Let's see what fresh disturbances this weekend can bring...

REINO DE ESPAÑA

Atletico Madrid (4th) vs. Barcelona (2nd). In the span of two weeks, the La Liga race has been almost completely turned on its head. Everyone (including me) was calling this one over as Real Madrid opened up a massive lead over a seemingly disinterested Barca. Now, that lead has been cut to two points. Los Blancos can't seem to win a game, even losing at home to Getafe (see Juan's hilarious post) and are now without master poacher van Nistelrooy. Barca, meanwhile, are really feeling it. They're on a good winning streak now, putting 5 past Levante over the weekend and beating Celtic in the CL, a notoriously difficult side to break down at Parkside. However, this weekend their job gets a little harder. The other Madrid side are certainly no pushovers, and wunderkind Sergio Aguero (Juan loves Quaresma like I love Aguero... I think he's my favorite relatively unknown superstar*) should return to partner Forlan up front.

The verdict: Now is Barca's time. Everyone is back healthy and seems to be finding their form. Even on the road, I think we'll see a strong performance from them. Atletico's major weakness is in the midfield, and they may have to start unproven seventeen year old Ignacio Camacho at CM thanks to poor performances from their regulars. With potent attackers all over the field, Barca should be able to net a couple before Atletico break through for a consolation. Los Indios 1 - 2 Los Awesome-O's.

REPUBBLICA ITALIANA

Juventus (3rd) vs. Fiorentina (4th). Fiorentina were lucky to have lowly Livorno sandwiched between this game and their heartbreaking 1-0 loss to Roma (keeper Sebastien Frey's face at 0:38 says it all). A get-healthy win against Livorno put them in the fourth spot, but AC Milan were running them down like a San Francisco tiger before being held by Catania. Now, they'll be very hard pressed to stay up there with a trip to the Stadio Olimpico to play Juventus. What will give them hope is that the Bianconeri haven't really been in great form lately. After beating Roma at home, they lost at Reggina, one of the league's worst sides, and then were unable to break down a stubborn Torino defense despite several good chances.

The verdict: What gives Juventus the edge in this match, and AC Milan hope for fourth, is the absence of star striker Adrian Mutu, who twisted his knee in the match against Roma. His goals to league games ratio was 2 to 3 (!), so without him, where will Fiorentina find the net? The answer is "not against Buffon." People are expecting a thriller, but I see a tight contest with a defensive error perhaps making the difference. Italy's Girlfriend 1 - 0 Italy's Purple-Clad, Frenchy-Symbol-Wearing Boyfriend.

ENGLAND

Arsenal (1st) vs. Aston Villa (6th). It's been a rough couple weeks for the Gunners. It all started with the spanking at the hands of Man U in the FA Cup, and culminated with a draw snatched from the jaws of victory against Birmingham. Along the way, they teased their London supporters with a dominant yet goalless display against AC Milan, and lost their "fox in the box" to a horrendous season-ending injury. United are now three points back, and the margin of error is razor thin. Meanwhile, Villa, since losing to Fulham at the beginning of the month, have gotten back on track. They easily dispatched horrendous Newcastle (England's new points ATM) and then went to work with a businesslike win over Reading. Ashley Young and Gabriel Agbonlahor remain a quick and deadly threat on the wings, especially when allowed to send in crosses for increasingly dangerous striker John Carew.

The verdict: Oh man, this is a tough one. Villa have been very solid all season and are currently level on points with Liverpool, which gives one an idea of their competitiveness. In their last meeting at Villa Park, Arsenal surrendered an early goal before scoring two and absolutely tearing their competition apart... for the remainder of the first half. In the second, they had to fight for their lives not to lose the lead. Of course, they're at home this time around, but can they turn the emotional experiences of last week to their advantage? Mathieu Flamini thinks they can, and the last time he played Villa, he scored a screamer. Since he's the new Gattuso, I'll set aside my fears of a draw for now. Gooners 2 - 1 Villans.


*Aguero, being short of stature, quick, Argentinian, and possessed of an eye for goal, has often been called the next Maradona. Thus making him one of at least three "next Maradona's" currently tearing it up in Europe.

AC Milan Ooze Class

And here's another example.

Just thought I'd mention it. Things may be quiet here at TLOCA for the moment, but fear not, there's a massive week ahead. Prepare for far more Champions League discussion than is necessary.

Tottenham, on the other hand, don't keep it quite as classy. (Much to my chagrin, though, it would seem as though the brilliant Juande Ramos may have to deal with more of this in the future. With a Cup victory, a shored up backline featuring a resurgent Woodgate, and a newfound confidence, Spurs are a team with a bright future... just as long as nobody pulls a Pacman Jones during these nighttime adventures.)

In Case You Missed It

I can't adequately explain why I personally found the events of Real Madrid - Getafe to be so comical. But if you want some help recreating the humor:

• Consider that Real ended up losing the game and in the midst of all the horrible outcomes this past week, something like this can always happen to your team

• Know that Real Madrid felt foolish for allowing this to happen

• Listen to it on mute the first time to better appreciate Robben's facial expression and Ruud's confusion.
  

• You must think backflips are funny. Because the dude doing backflips with his boy celebrating with him is priceless. I included the screen shot so you know what I'm talking about.
  
  
• When you listen to it for the second time with sound - obviously the Spanish announcer is hilarious. "Valio" in spanish means counted. So "no valio! no valio! no valio!" and then "ahora si valio" in spanish means, "it did not count"
  and "now it does count" (cue backflips).
  

Without any further adieu - here is the link*

I'm not responsible for this video being taken off of youtube in 2 hours from now, just so you know. Youtube sucks now, it's not my fault.

What A Week

Champions League First Leg Recap

Arsenal 1 - AC Milan 0

It was a hard fought game with the Gunners moving the ball around nicely. Milan's staunch defense seemed as if it would never crack but finally Theo Walcott put a pristine cross on the head of Adebayor (who else, right) who buried the empty netter in stoppage time to give Arsenal a valuable 1 goal lead heading into San Siro.


Liverpool 0 - Nazionale 0

Materazzi anchored a solid Inter defense that turned away Liverpool when opportunities presented themselves. Inter's offensive flood labored some at Anfield but returning home without giving up any unnecessary goals away should pay dividends for them in the second leg. Pool proved that you can't just try really hard when it matters and see results.


Manchester United 0 - Lyon 1

Young French firecracker Benzema showed that even ManU can't overcome talent. Lyon stayed patient on defense and kept some offensive mindset to keep ManU honest. Maintaining that attacking mentality proved well instead of cramming the box with defenders against ManU's offensivibility (offense and inevitability) to hold Chester 1 nil. This result gives Lyon hope as they did not give up the often pivotal goal at home.


Premier League Recap

Arsenal 3 - Birmingham City 1

The bad news is that Eduardo has a high ankle sprain and will be out 6-8 weeks. The good news is that Theo Walcott came in and propelled the gunners to a two-one lead before Adebayor (will he ever slow down?) put the baby to sleep and assured Arsenal of three important points in the scorching race for the Premiership.

Man Utd 2 - NewCastle 1

The Treble got caught score watching and struggled their way to victory against the Magpies. NewCastle after their first drubbing (6 nil) against Manchester made the necessary adjustments and almost held off United before finally conceding a late goal to Cristiano Ronaldo. Roonaldy (Cristi and Wayne) played uninspired and are officially slumping.


Serie A Recap

Juventus 2 - Reggina 1

Juventus established their win last week over Roma as no fluke by beating lowly Reggina the next week. With no Champions League or Coppa Italia to distract them anymore (or ever) Juve can concentrate on the Serie A and work hard to earn the coveted 2nd place finish in the Serie A. Trezeguet took his flu shot in October of last year so that silly things like sickness wouldn't hamper his starts. The inoculation proved effective as he was on the pitch to score the game winner late and in dramatic fashion to keep Juve threatening.

Horrible

Generally, I think Juan and I do a pretty good job of not being too biased when it comes to posting about different clubs. It's true that we have a vested interest in a select few, but we have respect for a lot of different teams and players, and I think we try to analyze things objectively.

As a biased Arsenal supporter, I just have to weigh in and say that today's game was the worst I've ever seen. No other match in recent years, whether it was losing the Champions League to Barca or the League Cup to Chelsea has left me so feeling so down. Though Arsenal will remain at least three points ahead, this was an important game to win, and losing at the last second in such awful fashion will really leave some emotional scars on the team while emboldening United and Chelsea.

It wasn't the result that really hurt, though. Far from it. It was the horrendous injury to Eduardo that may have prematurely ended a talented young man's career. I hope to God that isn't the case, but based on what I saw during the match and in pictures that have been circulating since, Taylor's tackle has to be looked upon as one of the worst the game has even seen. The look on the other players' faces said it all, and I think Cesc's agonized expression is now burned into my mind.

I'm not going to break down how Arsenal managed to blow chances and squander victory because it's fairly self-explanatory and there are others who will certainly be examining the result closely. I'm also not going to spend any more time whining about how other teams often resort to kicking Arsenal around the park in an attempt to slow them down and hamper their passing, making an incident like this, while horrible, feel somewhat inevitable. I'll just hope and pray that Eduardo recovers and that we'll be able to see more of this someday.

Weekend Preview

Now that we've gotten past all that boring Champions League stuff, it's back to the daily grind. Let's see what's on tap in the Big Three leagues.

SPAIN

Real Madrid (1st) vs. Getafe (13th). None of the matchups this week are particularly intriguing, but this one has to be the most interesting in terms of the title. Madrid have fallen 2-1 in two consecutive matches, revealing a vulnerability that hadn't been seen for awhile. Though the most recent one came against an explosive Roma team in the Champions League, they lost to lowly Real Betis over the weekend. Now what once appeared to be an insurmountable lead has fallen back to five points, and Barcelona are looking very dangerous at the moment. Now that they're back home, Madrid need to bounce back in a big way and demonstrate that the title is still firmly in their grasp. Getafe, meanwhile, need a win to separate themselves from the crowd of mediocre/bad teams sitting on 28 or 29 points, which is only a heartbeat away from relegation. Yet it's clear that they're capable of much better than their league record, as they've now advanced to the final 16 of the UEFA Cup with a resounding win over AEK Athens and are in the semis of the Copa del Rey. They're also the last team that took a point from the Bernabeu and have a history of giving Los Blancos trouble.

The verdict: Getafe may be performing well in their cup competitions and love to play spoiler against Los Merengues, but Madrid's league dominance at home is just too much to overcome. This year they're 11-0-0 at the Bernabeu. That's a pretty amazing statistic. I see Getafe making it interesting, and Madrid remembering who they are a la Simba in the Lion King. 100% Home Record 2 - 1 Pesky Visitors.

ITALY

Roma (2nd) vs. Fiorentina (4th). This is a premiere matchup that I can't wait to see. Roma are coming off a great comeback win against the Spanish giants in the CL, and though the league is now probably firmly in the hands of Inter, the battle for second place and CL spots is on. Fiorentina are figuring prominently in that battle, currently sitting in fourth and keeping out giants AC Milan, much like Everton and Liverpool. Adrian Mutu has been huge for La Viola in the absence of Luca Toni (currently enjoying himself in the Bundesliga), and scored a massive winner for them last weekend. Make no mistake, they're a very good team.

The verdict: But Roma are better, and they'll be playing at home. Totti seemed to find his feet in their Champions League match, and that's not a good sign for Fiorentina. Neither team will want to open themselves up to attack very much, and that'll make for a tense, tight match. Expect Roma to win the midfield battle and the match. Biggest City in Italy 1 - 0 Hippest City in Italy.

ENGLAND

Newcastle United (13th) vs. Manchester United (2nd). Ah, the Kevin Keegan era. Since the Geordie Messiah took the reins at his old club (again), they've got a record of 0-2-3 in all competitions and have scored TWO GOALS in that period. That is horrendous, and particularly so for a club that had such (absurdly) high expectations and a storied history. To be fair, they had to play Arsenal away twice and got thrashed 3-0 on both occasions. Nevertheless, it's pretty bad. Now, Keegan has to play against the team he most despised as both a player and manager: the Red Devils. Since falling to City, United have been on a good run of form, smashing Arsenal out of the FA Cup and grinding out a gritty draw and away goal against a good Lyon side. It also doesn't hurt that the last time they saw Newcastle, they scored SIX GOALS in the second half in a terrifying display.

The verdict: Poor Kevin Keegan. It almost makes you wonder if Newcastle will have three managers this season. Newcastle couldn't find the net if they had a google maps printout, Man U are capable of running rampant on any occasion, and when it comes to managers, Keegan famously broke down under the pressure of Alex Ferguson's mind games during the 1995-1996 season. You can't like his chances in this one, even with the Toon Army* behind him at Tyneside. Mighty Mouse 0 - 2 The Hairdryer.


*I'd just like to quickly say something about Newcastle fans. They're delusional when it comes to their team and always have unreasonable expectations. At the same time, they care far too much about flash and flare, especially in their strikers, when they should care more about results. Yet, they're the most loyal, passionate fans I've ever come across. At Nevada's, I've watched them as their team has lost horrendously on several occasions. Instead of doing what I (and most fans) usually do, which is groan, mope, and eventually leave, they stand and sing "we'll support you evermore." Which they will. Mad respect for the Toon Army.

Oh I'm Sure

...that I will never be making predictions again. Before my predictions embark on the walk of shame and eventually exit, I feel obliged to mention something often overlooked. Going four-and-oh is mathematically just as difficult as going 4-0.
Note - I was going to call going, "4-0" going, "Jake" but the Corruption and Scandals Committee has yet to rule on the quadfecta.
Anyway, missing all four games in comical fashion pays just as well as the opposite. The only catch is that you need to know I'm a complete dope and to bet against me. I actually have a name for this occurrence - the anti-muse. It was forced by my friend Eebs who controls Cleveland's sporting world with his online bets. It's too soon to declare me a Champions League Anti-muse but lets just say that if I had had the opportunity to post day-2 predictions, rumors would be flying.

Define comical - After day-1 I realized (like Jim) that I had predicted too many goals for a first leg matches and thought I would be really clever to predict less goals the second time around. Hmmm - rumors are flying.

Enough about me though - I have some important news

Drum roll please...

I know what was wrong with Barcelona! Took me long enough right... Well the answer is quite simple, and he's pictured, stunning features and all. Use your imagination for a moment and take a trip with me. You're watching the game between Team A and Team B. Imagine Team A has the typical build-up in the offensive half. Team A is poking and prodding so to speak with midfield passes to the si, occasionally looking for the striker through-ball. Meanwhile Team B is fully settling back on defense and trying to maintain shape as the non-threatening passes go from sideline to sideline. Well eventually Team A tries the through-ball or cross and it never really threatened, defenders A handle it quite easily. So now A is on the run-out. They want to get out of their defensive half. Here is what you've seen before. At this moment, Team B invariably has a long pass up to just above half, to a striker checking back for the ball (kind of pictured, it's the best I could do). He's stationary and he has a defender always on his back. So from here a few things happen:

1) Several times the defender will come crashing into the back of the forward and the foul will be called.

2) Less clumsy defenders hold the forward and don't allow a turn. Team B's forward usually has to one-time the ball back to a winger, who then usually one-time's a long ball over the top to the other striker breaking. It doesn't really work that well. If it results in a chance on goal 1 out of 50 times the play is considered a success.

3) The forward kind of loses the ball from a half-hearted turn and the defenders pass it back to the sweeper and reload for the next build-up.

In summary its a difficult situation that almost never results in a "great" break-out. The forward can't turn, he also has midfielders from Team A crashing back on him as they retreat on defense and they are usually near the sideline. And even some times a third defender, knowing he has the passing lane down the sideline and willing to retreat anyway, will also be running at the forward. Here is where El Gaucho comes in.

Somewhere around 10 times I witnessed the outlet pass to Ronaldinho checking back. With a defender on his back and often times 2 other midfielders around him, he shed them all and found his midfielder (either Deco or Iniesta) with space and sometimes behind the cheating midfielders who thought they had Ninho's passing lanes cut off. He rarely had to pass it back into the defensive zone and almost always found a player running free or at least with time.

(Am I making any sense?)

This was a luxury Barcelona utilized extremely well. El Gaucho's progression allowed for overlapping runs on the opposite side (Puyol usually) as well as Thierry Henry to run with one less defender. It was Ronaldinho's phenomenal turn and pass that eventually resulted in Messi's first goal and I believe his control of the outlet that led to Henry's freedom to silence the crowd.

Ninho looked confused when he was to be subbed for Eto'o and he should have been - he was critical to Barca's build-up all game. I'll briefly take this segway to pose the question of why there has to be an "oddman" out. I realize none of the W-4 (world four) play any defense whatsoever but Gaucho can certainly play midfield with Henry, Eto'o and Messi up top or Messi can play wing mid as well. It clearly doesn't matter yet and it's truly horrifying to see Eto'o come in fresh with 30 to play but still.

In summary, Barcelona looked the scariest of all 16, 12 of which I saw play in entirety. 2 weeks can't come soon enough.