Welcome Back David Trezeguet

He's been back since September 12th but yesterday, with his late goal against Genoa, he debuted his trademark joy (pictured).


Juventus 2, Tasty Salami 2

The match started off with a bang after Camorenesi dummied a cross to an overlapping Vincenzo who struck well from outside the box. It was the type of play that pays homage to The Beautiful Game and its always nice to see Iaquinta on the score sheet. What was set out to be a trap game was on pace to end 15-nil and I thought, "what a shame to watch a record-setting match on a grainy, small, frustrating feed."

If you didn't know, Juventus made some very relevant transfers this off-season and while Diego, Felipe Melo, and Cannavaro may steal the headlines, the best one of them all was the acquisition of Fabio Grosso from Lyon. He needs no introduction, of course, but it is worth noting that he replaced my arch-rival and nemesis-till-death, Molinaro. And if you're not that familiar with Juventus, that's like replacing Nicklas Bendtner with Fernando Torres.

Before I forget, another hilariously pleasing signing resulted in Uruguayan Martin Caceres joining the Old Lady - seen here about to carefully end another man's career. The website mentions a tradition of Uruguayan players joining Juventus and at first I thought that pretty awesome until I realized these are the men responsible for my impending nervous breakdown. Caceres is only 22 and yes, he is a very promising Uruguayan defender. Which is to say, he's extremely rare. Here's to wishing him a long and prosperous career at La Juve and more importantly, la Selecion.

In fact, Uruguayan nationals keep popping up all over the place lately. I watched the Real Madrid v Villareal match just the other day and who do I see but two Uruguayans, Eguren and Diego Godin. The best part about that video is that Carlos Tevez, who's knows Godin well, gives him a cheap shot and it's Eguren that confronts him with a sarcastic, he's not really hurt but you're the exact same asshole I remember you as, lecture. Anyway, moving right along.

It's after half-time at this point, all knotted up at 1's. Juventus lacks the final pass during attacking plays to lead to any relevant chances on goal. When Juventus struggles it's because the midfielders play long-balls over the top rather than use the fullbacks for a slower build-up. It sort of comes with the territory in the Serie A. Not soon after a seemingly innocuous run down the sideline for the Cured Meat suddenly turns malicious and a header is smashed home near post. I'm listening to the Italian announcers and could have sworn I heard the name Crespo.

This sends me scrambling to Gamecast, that pathetic excuse for following a game and I see H. Crespo has apparently scored. No, now I know I'm crazy. Hernan Crespo? Yes, it is. The man who could never quite fill the shoes of Gabriel Batitusta (could anyone) is on loan at Genoa. Not only that, he just put them ahead. Daggers - 76'.

Then Iaquinta scores - disallowed dubiously for offsides. Then Chiellini scores - disallowed dubiously for offsides. Am I witnessing a scandal? The replay shows Trezeguet, who flicked it up for Giorgio, onside by a full two yards. What's going on here?

I'm irate until, yep, David Trezeguet scores the equilizer and follows up with his spot-on impression of the happiest man on earth. The smile is contagious and just like that I'm ok with 1 point.

Welcome back David. I've missed you.
(actual game photo -->)

Pandora's Box

"Impelled by her natural curiosity, Pandora opened the jar, and all evil contained escaped and spread over the earth. She hastened to close the lid, but the whole contents of the jar had escaped, except for one thing which lay at the bottom, and that was Hope."
__________________________________________________

Uruguay
at Ecuador
vs Argentina

Best Case Scenario: Somehow after losing to Peru, Uruguay still has control over their own fate. Colombia was a must win and they did; which is the only reason they're in this post at all. If they win out they could finish as high as third, which is so silly I don't even smile when I think about what they've put me through. Goal differential gives them the tie-break over everyone still chasing and two wins will see them auto-qualifying.

How They Can Back In: A draw to Ecuador and a win against Argentina still puts them through assuming that neither Venezuela, nor Colombia win their remaining two games. Venezuela has Paraguay and Brasil, and Colombia has a desperate Chile - who still need 1 point to clinch - and Paraguay. This scenario would also eliminate Argentina and the entire population of Montevideo would die with delight. Actually die of happiness. It would also effectively ruin any flicker of bilateralism remaining between the two nations.

What Can't Happen: So long as Venezuela, Argentina, or Colombia keeps winning they must follow suit.

Portugal
vs Hungary
vs Malta

Best Case Scenario: Portugal, on the other hand, does not control their own destiny. They must win their next two and require that Sweden acquire no more than 4 points in their remaining two against Denmark and Albania. They also need to win one of their remaining two games by more goals than Sweden wins it's lone game to beat the tiebreak. Remember that all of this is to finish 2nd with the opportunity to continue qualifying.

How They Can Back In: Sweden must lose out and Portugal can draw their remaining two games to overtake the Swedes on differential. Not exactly likely with Albania on the schedule.

What Can't Happen: Realistically they must win-out and hope that Denmark beats Sweden. Sweden's magic number is 4.

Israel
vs Moldova
at Switzerland

Best Case Scenario: Israel must win out and Greece and Latvia must both lose 1 of their remaining two games. They play each other so that's unlikely considering Luxemborg and Moldova are their other two opponents.

How They Can Back In: Greece and Latvia draw in their match, and neither squad wins by more goals in their last games than Israel wins in its two combined game. That puts Israel in second on goal differential.

What Can't Happen: Israel cannot lose because at least 1 point will be disseminated between Latvia and Greece since they play each other.

Turkey
at Belgium
vs Armenia

What Can't Happen: It's bleak for the Turks, hence my skipping of the other sections. The reason is because Bosnia cannot win either of it's two games, nor cannot it draw both games (because of GD). Bosnia has Estonia and Spain left on the schedule so it's not completely crazy. Again, hope is the agenda here. Obviously Turkey must win out and it wouldn't hurt to accumulate an 11 goal margin to win the tiebreak either, otherwise known as the song, Turkey feat. Memphis Bleek

France
vs Faroe Islands
vs Austria

Best Case Scenario: Raymond Domenech gets struck by a bus before October 10th

How They Can Back In: Serbia earns no more than 1 point against Romania and Lithuania along with France winning their remaining two by a margin of 9 goals.

What Can't Happen: If Serbia wins any of its next two, ladies and gentleman they will have automatically qualified for the world cup. Also, if somehow France only draws (or less) it's remaining two and Austria wins out, France is gone.

Egypt
at Zambia
vs Algeria

Practically all of Africa is still up for grabs but the Egyptians, a squad I think could do some things in the World Cup, is down 3 points to Algeria and needs some help.

_____________________

As I watched Andres Scotti's improbable, looping, momentum-defying header slowly bounce across the line to give Uruguay a 2-1 lead over Columbia I couldn't help but wonder about that feeling - hope. "Hope," by its definition contains an irrational element to it. Now, with this two year qualifying campaign coming to an end, I've wondered about the Greek mythology of Pandora's box. We all know the story; it was opened releasing evil and despair on the world but it also released Hope. What this terrible qualifying campaign has made me wonder about is the word, "but" in the previous sentence. Why is there this universal understanding that Hope is not just as evil as the other things released from the box? Why do we assume Hope is a good thing? And why would do we seem to take for granted that Hope is the countermeasure to the other evil qualities. It's a ludicrous notion and I've come to realize this after Uruguay ropes me back in for another month of this interminable qualifying horror story.

October 10th and 14th - those are the dates when this will all finally end and I can once again find solace in the facts, regardless of the outcome. I've gained a new appreciation for reality and it seems to me that the story of Pandora's box is a hilarious double entendre that we've all been missing for the last hundreds of years.

Ha.

Fun With Statistics Part 1 - Relegation

Welcome to the first installment of Fun With Statistics. In this post TLOCA will examine the unique system of relegation. Does the system work? Let's take a look.

Since the year 2000, the following point totals have been relegated from the Premiership to the Football League Championship, formerly the First Division. Starting from the campaign that ended in 2000:

24, 31, 33, 26 ,34, 34, 28, 30, 36, 19, 26, 42, 33, 33, 33, 33, 33, 32, 34, 30, 15, 38, 34, 28, 36, 35, 11, 34, 32, 32

It's approximately a normal distribution and without Derby (2008 - 11 points) the distribution fits a bell curve even better.



Perhaps the data are skewed to the left* but that is understandable when you consider how payrolls are also heavily skewed to the left. I digress, as payroll stats is a topic for another day.

So with a reasonably normal distribution we can use the standard deviation to tell us if relegated teams are statistically different from those that remain in the top flight.

If you know a little bit about stats then enjoy, otherwise just skip to the punch-line below;

let y = relegation points
and we'll model them with N(30.6, 6.49)

Using a 95% confidence interval, which is to say, we're 95% confident a particular relegation score is between two values based on the numbers, we get

30.6 points plus/minus 3.4 points, or , an interval of (27.2 - 34.0) points**.

Does the system work? If the system works then the three worst point-totals are justifiably being relegated each year. We only care about the upper limit - 34 points - and how many times a team has been relegated when earning more than 34 points. If you glance at the data;

24, 31, 33, 26 ,34, 34, 28, 30, 36, 19, 26, 42, 33, 33, 33, 33, 33, 32, 34, 30, 15, 38, 34, 28, 36, 35, 11, 34, 32, 32

you'll see it happens quite a bit. The question though, can be asked in a better way. How many times was a team not relegated when earning 34 points or less. Even if West Ham several years ago was relegated with 42 points, which they were, they were still one of the worst 3 point-total teams that year. The system works on a relative basis, sending down the 3 worst teams relative to the others. That happened to be a year of high parity near the bottom, so sorry West Ham.
The key then is to find those teams that are no different (well, 95% confident that they're no different) from relegation teams in the past but still managed to stay in the Gloryship.

This has happened only once in the past 10 years. In 2005, West Brom was not relegated but only earned 34 points. So in essence, 4 teams should have been relegated that year, not 3. But hey, one in thirty ain't bad.




Next up - Promotion


_______________________________________
*I know intuitively the data look skewed to the right. Statisticians for some silly reason have accepted the fact that skewed to the "left" means the "hump" is on the right side. ...I don't like it either.

**I took out the outliers, Derby, Sunderland, etc, and the average with interval still rounds to 34 points. I even took out the top 3 and bottom 3 point totals and the point total is still 34 points. Rounding in this case is OK because a team must earn an integer value for points.

What We Knew, Didn't Know and This Weekend

I was 90 seconds away from calling the Chelsea v. Hull City fiasco. I had even parlayed my Hull prediction into a full post from Jim with the title, "why Juan is smarter than me." Drogba left me with nothing instead. Damn you Didier.

Then Hull went and got worked over by Tottenham, more on them later, making my top table prediction a foolhardy one. Fear not Hull-ites, only 2 of your next 12 games are against top 6 teams (from last year of course). That's partly why I predicted you'd get off to a hot start, but hey, I'm just a crazy asshole anyway right! (sigh. so bitter...)


What we knew;

• Michael Owens does in fact, suck. Moreover, United's woes in front of goal is no fluke. Their goal totals in the Premiership over the last three championship years are in decline - 83, 80, and 68 last year. This is with Cristiano, of course, and he's kind of a goal-scorer. This year they're on pace for 19! Arsenal, on the other hand, is on pace for 190. This analysis makes it clear that United will struggle this year and Arsenal will break every record imagineable. Annnnnnd... done.

• TLOCA is a bit pessimistic when it comes to Arsenal. I'll come down off the ledge if we get three from a starving Portsmouth team this weekend and I'll buy you a drink if we beat United in 2 weeks. Until then, I'm enjoying the breeze up here.

• Chelsea is really annoying. FFLampard hasn't even gotten going yet.

• Adebayor loves money.

What we didn't know

• That Arsenal's Denilson and Song have been doing work in the offseason. I would have thrown Bendtner in there as well but he played as himself against Celtic. Arsenal's successes this year have come without key contributors; Arshavin has been solid but stymied in the final third and the same goes for Van Persie. Fabregas has clearly stepped up to the challenge but he tends to get off to hot starts. The EPL has and always will be about depth and the final half of the season so let's not crown Arsenal yet.
  
  
• Tottenham looks very crisp. They've created 50 scoring chances in two games and look unfortunately fluid in attack mode. Aaron Lennon looks like he's made a jump and so does Jermaine Defoe. I don't like this one bit.
  
  
• That Birmingham and Burnley would look so frisky. Birmingham surprised me with their poise and build-up against United in their 1 nil loss and Burnley did the unthinkable just a few days ago. The confounder here is that they both looked good against United so we'll have to wait a few more games to absolve them of relegation talks.
  
  
• There have been 16 games played thus far and none of them have ended in a draw. Last year, 26.3% of matches ended a draw. That's kind of weird**, no?

This weekend;

Arsenal vs. Portsmouth - No points in two games and the schedule doesn't get easier for the Mouth. They have Citeh, Bolton, Aston Villa, Everton, Wolves, Tottenham coming up - all losable games. Ouch.

Birmingham vs. Stoke - The friskies collide to see who will be crowned most frisky.

Citeh vs. Wolves - The more we all see Manchester City, the better.

Wigan vs. ManUtd - a must-win this early in the season? More on this in a future post.

Liverpool vs Aston Villa (monday) - my guess is we'll leave with no further answers about either team but thoroughly entertained.





Until then

____________________________________________
**In fact, the probability of 16 games all ending with a win/loss result is .0076, or, under 1 in a 100 chance. 1 in 128 to be exact.

Sally Can Wait, She Knows It's Too Late As She's Walking On By

"Lady-Luck was riding [Liverpool] reverse cowgirl all season long and they still finished 6 points adrift."
-TLOCA

--"Liverpool was not lucky at all."
---Comments
___________________________________________________________

During the Euro's 2008 a Turkish player earned one of my all-time favorite nicknames. Semih Senturk, the Lifeguard. If you were watching the Turks in the Euros you'll never forget their knack for the late goals. Perhaps "lucky" isn't the best word to describe it, but it's certainly something.

In the 2008 EPL season, Liverpool did their best Turkey impression. In the 80th minute or later, Liverpool snatched the lead to win 4 times. As if that weren't enough, they came from down a goal to win in the 80th minute or later another 2 times. Here are the who they beat, by whom, and when:

Sunderland, 83, Torres
Middlesbrough, 90+, Gerrard
ManCity, 90+, Kuyt
Wigan, 80 and 85, Riera and Kuyt (down one to win by one)
Portsmouth, 85 and 90+, Kuyt and Torres (down one to win by one)
Fulham, 90+, Benayoun
Chelsea, 81 and 82, Lukas Kuyt (draw)
Arsenal, 90, Benayoun (draw) :(

That's an astounding 16 points earned after the 80th minute. They finished the season with 86 total.

The next closest is, of course, Manchester United with 5 victories after the 80th minute (and no draws).

Sunderland, 90+, Vidic
Stoke City, 83, Tevez
Bolton, 90+, Berbatov
Aston Villa, 80 and 90+, Ronaldo and Macheda (down one to win by one)
Wigan, 86, Carrick

for 11 points. Chelsea and Arsenal only completed the late game magic 3 times for wins and Arsenal was the only team of the big four not have come back from the dead (down 1 into the 80th to win).

So I guess what I meant to impart is, since Pool still finished 6 points back and also snatched up 5 more cardiac thrillers than who they were chasing, it's not inconceivable that this year they return to earth. With no major signings and only departures (enter stage left: Arsenal), I predict a down year for Liverpool.

Schedules and Prediction's That Are Likely to Fail

Manchester United
I heard a staggering statistic the other day when I was watching the Community Shield match. In the previous 2 seasons, Cristiano and Carlito Tevez combined for 102 goals for Manchester United (67 and 35 respectively). They are also without Van Der Sar for some time. Here are there first 10 games:

Birmingham
at Burnley
at Wigan
Arsenal
at Tottenham
City
at Stoke
Sunderland
Bolton
at Blackburn

There are 7 ho-hum games in there for an uneventful 18-21 points. And three worrisome-but-could-be-blow-out games in there as well. My final answer is 24 points. If you want more analysis you're going to have to wait because I have absolutely no clue what to think of this team. United lost their identity, without argument, and they're ageing stars have aged one more year. Is Rooney capable of picking up the load? Because I know Berbatov is not. Valencia is a bruiser, which is to say, not exactly the United type. The man is huge by the way, just absolutely ripped. I'm scarred.


Liverpool
"Lucas - 'I can fill Alonso void'"

"Arhancet - 'LMAO!'"

Is it possible to write off a Liverpool team that had such a good year (all things considered) before this season even starts? The answer is yes. And the reason why is because Lady-Luck was riding them reverse cowgirl all season long and they still finished 6 points adrift. And they loved it. I have a hard time imagining Ms. Luck being so kind this year again. Here are their first 10:

at Tottenham
Stoke City
Aston Villa
at Bolton
Burnley
at West Ham
Hull City
at Chelsea
at Sunderland
Manchester United

That's pretty brutal (but wait, the best is yet to come). I count only 5 guarantees in there. 1 volatile, just absolutely unpredictable game against Hull City (my sleeper to win the EPL). 2 of the big four and 2 against the frisky six. My final answer is 21 points and that's not at all a bad thing.


Chelsea
I have them winning the league although I'll never admit it. This team would get choked by Dylon (I spit hot fire) because in the past two years they've been so close. Too close really. Drobga is happy, Anelka seems to hate life a little less, Ballack is surprisingly fit (for ze German National team), Lampard is FFL (Frank F*&^ing Lampard), and I really like the Zhirkov signing. Not to mention Deco, a healthy Joe Cole, Essien, Carvalho, Bosingwa, and John Terry.
Ugh. Here are there first 10 games:

Hull City
at Sunderland
at Fulham
Burnley
at Stoke City
Tottenham
at Wigan
Liverpool
at Aston Villa
Blackburn

Allow me to go on record with them losing to Hull City, panic at the disco, and then winning their remaining 9 games. My final answer is 26 points. And if you're clever, you'll realize you can only get to that number by winning 8 games and drawing 2, but I digress.


Arsenal
Are you ready for murder's row? At least for the first half of the ten. Cuz oh my goodness:

at Everton
Portsmouth
at ManUtd
at ManCity
Wigan
at Fulham
Blackburn
Birmingham
at West Ham
Tottenham

(Yes that is a picture of Gisele and yes she does appear to be a gunners fan.)

We could go our first 4 games without a single point, bust out of the Champions League and still be in September. That would cause me to fly to St. Louis and hang myself outside of Jim's apartment wearing nothing but my Carlos Vela jersey. Jim would go outside, see what has happened, and with the gun he's been carrying because of Arsenals start, shoot himself in the head. We'd make BBC front page and Arsene Wenger would be quoted as saying we made a hasty decision. Damn you Arsene. Damn you. My final answer is 24 points.

That leaves the standings at;

Hull City - 28
Chelsea - 26
Man Utd - 24
Arsenal - 24
Liverpool - 21




T-minus 2 days!!!! I'd be lying if I denied having an erection. Two days.

T-minus 12 days

The beautiful game returns in only twelve days. Twelve! Less than 90 days ago Arsenal faded out of memory with a meaningless 4-1 win over Stoke City and with that left behind a lingering sensation of disappointment. The parallels between Arsenal last season and a regretful hook-up are plentiful.

Before the night began, and while you were still sober, you had already decided that you weren't going to do it, she's not worth it, done. Decided.
Before last season Arsenal lost Flamini and Hleb with no replacements. Jim and I knew this was a problem. We'd say things like, "Who's going to play alongside of Fabregas?" Or, "I know we'll miss Hleb. I just know it."

Then... you start drinking.

Arsenal started off with beer; a nice win over West Brom, a pleasant outing against Fulham. Shotgunned one against NewCastle (that was fun). Beat up on Blackburn. Come from behind against Bolton! Uh oh. I'm feeling it... and it feels good. There aren't many feelings in this whole world that can beat buzzed off of beer. Then the Carling Cup happened - we did some shots, and oh shit, Jim and I were both drunk. Carlos Vela played the role of that friend who shows up to the party late, needs to catch up, and needs someone to do those shots of tequila with. And just like that friend you know in the back of your mind that whether or not you love him or hate him, what just happened throws this whole night up in the air. "Let's make some bad decisions tonight!" you joke. But still, your fate isn't sealed just yet. You can stop here and enjoy the night.

Those shots just settle down and guess who comes walking over - That Girl. Don't worry, you decided not to hook up with her. The reasons are obvious. You start up conversation and realize, she looks good.
Hull city wins 2-1 on a wonder goal. It's a fluke we said. These things happen. Whatever. Anyway, the real night is starting - Champions League! And you leave for the bar.

The girls don't pay for the cab, typical, and Sunderland draws 1-1. But whatever, you've made it, and rescued a point. These things seem trivial but it's all part of a season.

You make it past the bouncer, get inside and before you know it, Low by Flo rida and T-pain comes on and the grinding has begun. On the bar-TV show highlights of Arsenal beating Fenerbahce 5-2. It's gonna be a good night, yes I will do that shot of Beam.

Well well, who's this? Girl in the dress keeps looking over here. Oh my gosh she is. I should approach. She clearly wants to talk, I should approach. What will I say? Oh, oh, I know, I'll say, "hey, what's up?" No. That's horrible. "How's it going," is way better. Way better? That sounds square. I'll say, "..." wait a second? Where did she go? F#$%! Tottenham 4, Arsenal 4. I need a drink to forget this terrible luck (no you don't). One more down the hatch. Oh come on! Ms. Dress Girl is talking to some other dude now. Arsenal 1, Stoke City 2. Tequila please, Montezuma Blue. Ehhh. Nice (no, it wasn't).

Begin fragmentory black-out.
Arsenal 1, United 2 - Girl spills drink on your shirt.
Arsenal 3, Wigan 0 - It was a vodka tonic, no stain!
Arsenal 0, Aston Villa 2 - But your shirt is all wet and girls laugh at you as you leave the bathroom.
You're feeling pretty dizzy. Not good. Definitely shouldn't have done that last one... Manchester Citasdfkjf... Chelsejaskksk... Aston Villa at the death to steal two points. Time to go throw up.

Glass of water at the bar, Arsenal 1, Everton 1, and let's see if we can salvage this season. The Premiership didn't matter anyway, we were here for the Champions League. Let's get it together, Roma is up next.

Leave the bar for the after party at, excellent, FA's house. That FA Cup sure is a cutie. Wouldn't mind getting with her. The mere thought gives me a second wind. Arsenal 4, Cardiff City 0 (Eduardo brace). And what's this? Oh my goodness, at the afterparty is Ms. Dress Girl! This could be an epic night after all! Arsenal signs Arshavin. Damn, she has a boyfriend, but clearly not for long, they don't look happy. Arshavin is cup-tied.

The boot and rally works well as the budlight goes down without a problem. Everything tastes like water now anyway. Great conversation with FA Cup, she's always been a flirt. Always there, but for some reason it just doesnt mean that much to you. We all have those girls. Not to mention that Ms. Dress Girl is alone, the boyfriend has left. Ah yes, you remember why you came here in the first place. Arsenal squeek by Roma on penalty kicks.

Can this happen? Can we actually win the Champions League? Is Ms. Dress Girl really coming over to talk to me on the couch? The party is dying down, this is when moves are made.

"Hey there," she says as she sits down on the couch, "you must be Lucasz Fabianaski."
"Hahaha, no, who's that? I'm actually Arsene Wenger," you reply. "Where are you from with an accent like that?"
"Liverpool." She replies hastily. "You may know my older brothers, Fernando and Yossi."
Suddenly you feel nauseated. Looks like those budlights aren't going to stay quiet for long. Oh no. This isn't going to work.
"Excuse me," you ask politely, not wanting to screw things up for next time. You head for the door and wander around outside.
...
...
...

(beep, beep, beep, beep, beep...) What a terrible noise. Oh my god, my head... I feel like death. I'm alive, but I feel lik... Huh? Jesus where am I?

You've woken up next to That Girl. Manchester United 3, Arsenal 1. Sigh. I knew this would happen.