Happy Thanksgiving (Except you, Arsenal)

I hope everyone is having a great holiday, despite Arsenal's best efforts to ruin it. The panic button shouldn't be pushed yet, but I understand if you're hunched over the button with your arm raised and glancing around with crazy eyes.

This Saturday against Aston Villa, the Gooners have the opportunity to start off the weekend in amazing fashion. And I'm not referring to the three points. Those will be nice of course, but I'm most referring to timing of it all.

It's a long weekend, it's the holidays, and Arsenal is the opening ceremony. An Arsenal win means the United-Blackburn match is exceedingly more enjoyable. You get to be that guy at the bar wearing Arsenal red, oooh-ing and aah-ing obnoxiously over every Blackburn miss. You can drink your beer with a conspicuous air of entitlement, talk loudly about how, "Wayne seems to have lost a step", and still leave happy after United win 2-nil. The day has just begun.

After an early lunch of leftover turkey, stuffing and mashed potatoes, the Serie A is there for dessert. AC Milan and their enigmatic all-stars face a tricky Sampdoria side to increase their lead atop the table. Then comes Juventus, or rather, the Milo Krasic show, on FSC. If you haven't tuned in to see Milo Krasic run circles around slow Serie A defenders, this is your chance. The Old Lady has a swagger about them lately, so lets hope they keep it up.

Before you drift off to sleep in the wonderful food comatose that can only occur this time of year, let Diego Forlan tuck you in. The World Cup's best player leads Atletico Madrid against Barcelona's younger brother, Espanyol. With rumors of a scoring drought, Doug E Fresh set the record straight against Osasuna, and ever since, he and Kun Aguero have been running trains on La Liga defenders.

On Sunday, Liverpool will beat Tottenham after Chelsea loses to Newcastle and the Rams, who are shockingly relevant this year, will pull out a nice road victory a mile in the air. You'll say goodbye to family, eat one more turkey sandwich for the road and wonder why you don't make 15 pound turkeys more often because the leftovers are so damn good. Unfortunately, it can't be replicated; it won't be same if it's not Nov 25th, but you knew that already.

None of these things will happen if Arsenal comes out and loses. So yeah, no pressure.

Happy Thanksgiving!

There Is Vomit Everywhere

Last week, I used Ice Cube's line "drunk, but no throwing up" to characterize how Arsenal dealt with taking a two goal lead against Everton. Applying that to today's match against Spurs, I can only conclude that the Emirates Stadium is drenched with metaphorical vomit. Dripping with vile, alcohol-laden vomit. Swimming in a hastily-chewed half pound bean and cheese burrito from Del Taco and reeking of bile and acid. How on earth did this happen?

Arsenal got a little tipsy when Nasri broke the deadlock. Even the boss was fist-pumping and smiling in a manner that he usually saves for goal number seven. Who could blame him, though? Arsenal were good value for their lead, dominating proceedings in the midfield, and pressing Spurs high up the pitch. Chamakh made it two, and suddenly, we were on top of the world (let alone the league table). Beating Spurs at home, business as usual. After all, they hadn't taken three points on Arsenal's home field since 1993. We had the three points draped over us, she kept touching our arm and laughing at all our jokes. Fantastic.

But we couldn't let things plateau. We just kept drinking. And drinking. And suddenly, Denilson was staggering around the field, forgetting to track back and help out his defense during a Spurs break. 2-1. And then during a free kick, Fabregas and Chamakh raised their arms like frat boys clamoring for another round of shots, desperately trying to get the bartender's attention. And they succeeded, as Cesc's blatant resulting handball gave Phil Dowd absolutely no choice but to throw us out of the bar. 2-2. And then, utterly demoralized and disoriented, Arsenal watched, powerless and thick-tongued, as Younes Kaboul spit game at the three points and convinced her to come home to White Hart Lane. 2-3. As Kaboul sealed the deal, Arsenal vomited copiously onto the pavement and collapsed in a stricken, moaning, weeping heap of misery.

William Gallas is laughing at us. Harry Redknapp is laughing at us. Jermaine Jenas is laughing at us. I can only hope that we were blackout when this went down because it might be the only way that we'll be able to rebound from it. Would that Arsene's Sleeping Bag Coat were a Time Sleeping Bag Coat. We could go back in time and salvage this. As it is, we need to get out a mop, some Pine Sol, a healthy helping of humility, and promise ourselves (at least until next week) to never drink again.

Arsene Knows (And So Do I)

That when Cesc isn't on the pitch, Nasri needs to be taking Arsenal's penalties. Go on, show 'em how it's done, Samir:

First one.

And then again (perfect).

Also, the Arsenal fans were in extremely fine voice today. Even I will admit that the support (especially at home) can be a bit weak at times. But today, they outsang Spurs almost the entire match. I couldn't quite make all of them out, but from what I heard, here are the top three Arsenal chants of the night:

(1) "Shall we make a DVD?" (In reference to this.)

(2) "Oh when the Spurs go marching out." (Fantastic appropriation.)

(3) "Are you Tottenham in disguise?" (Standard, but never fails to make me laugh out loud.)

My other thoughts, in no particular order:

- Wilshere and Gibbs are the future, and the future is probably coming a lot sooner than we think. I'm OK with that.

- After Spurs smashed Arsenal 5-1 in the 2008 Carling Cup and finally broke the ten-year spell of Gunners league dominance in April, is this a statement of intent that normal service will be resumed? Whatever.

- The first penalty was a bit soft, but when you get on the wrong side of your man the way Bassong did with Nasri, you're tempting fate. And for the second one, the referee had absolutely no choice. Chamakh didn't exactly try to stay on his feet, but he was obviously impeded. Awful defending, but also very clever passes by Arshavin to put Nasri and Chamakh in position to win those penalties.

- Robbie Keane's goal was definitely offside. And I can't stand him. But Fabianski should have done better - he just couldn't resist the urge to add more fuel to the "Fabianski is terrible please God sell him every time he plays he screws something up" bonfire. It's a raging bonfire. Sometimes I think he's doing it on purpose just to see how poorly someone can play and yet still suit up for Arsenal. Someone check and see if he's placed any bets on how long he stays in the team.

But I digress. A great result. And fair play to the kid below, if I were a Spurs supporter I'd be weeping, too.

7 Hours of Soccer Later

And we're just getting started.

At around 10:15 today I yawned, took another swig of Guinness, and felt for the void. It was gone. Soccer was back. Tottenham and Manchester City played what might be the most exciting nil-nil draw I can remember. In summary, Joe Hart made Robert Green and David James look like drunken hobos. Next up was Everton vs. Blackburn. After ten minutes of boring play, and worse, sharp pink Everton jerseys burning my retinas, it was time to change the channel. When Ted and I arrived at the Aston Villa game it was 1-nil to Villa and already they were on their 9th corner. The play flowed nicely, Villa's checkered-trim jerseys pleased the eyes, and the defense was abject. A professional finish from James Milner turned Villa park into a swimming pool and the commentators cued up nostalgic, "Is this the last goal for James Milner in a Villa jersey? :( " questions.

This is no time for a rant, but James Milner leaving Villa for Saudi oil money is wrong in every sporting way. He is a hero at Villa and a key contributor for a competitive squad. The only foreseeable upgrade for him is wages, and the cost is likely to be all sporting aspects that kids dream about when they say they want to be a professional footballer. These kids have obviously never been paid. But this story is as close as you can get to formulating an equation for the price of greatness, as it were. For an extra 20% on his salary, Milner is no longer adored, no longer a hero, no longer "the guy", and who knows if he'll still start next year. I'm sure Adebayor thought he'd be a regular too. That's probably a bad comparison though, because he was never adored. (We've got Arshavin...something something Adebayor)

Anyway. Milner is surely off to join the other 45 over-paid mercenaries at Manchester Citeh. Only 25 of which, are relevant. Grill up a sausage, pick up some toasted ravioli and a dollop of the best German garlic-mustard I have ever had was the lunch menu during the Chelsea - blank fixture.

The commentators, as if watching a horse be put down, introduced the West-Brom lineup. "Well this is unlucky for West Brom -- the fixture computer drawing them against Chelsea." Ha! As if the title holders were going to open against anything other than a punching bag. Six-nil was my call - I have a witness - and it made me no money because I put nothing on it. In fact, after Chelsea's inexcusable second goal, the product of a gaping wall, it was nap time. "And its FOUR for Chelsea... ... Five-nil to the champions... ... Well taken for SIX".

It wasn't the greatest nap, though I did wake up refreshed. The Bolton-Fulham replay came on; we already knew the outcome and immediately turned it off.

"We just conquered seven hours of soccer and it feels great," Ted said. "I'll see you tomorrow."

I can't wait. We're just getting started.

End of the Season Awards

It was, ultimately, a happy Sunday to culminate the emotional roller coaster that was the English Premier League this year. Arsenal went out with some flare to finish third, ManUnited failed to win a record 4th consecutive domestic title, and Chelsea forced Wigan to reenact 2-girls, 1-cup while they celebrated in front of their fans. At the beginning of the year it seemed obvious that Chelsea would win the trophy but that in no way diminished the ride. Here are the end of the season awards for the EPL:

Coach of the Year
Alex Ferguson (ManUtd) - He sold Cristiano Ronaldo and Carlos Tevez - only 33% of his offensive output from the year before - and managed to increase United's total number of goals this year by 27% (68 last year to 86 this year). It makes no sense to me either. Valencia and Nani blossomed while Wayne Rooney performed criminal acts with his finishing. Ryan Giggs and Paul Scholes returned from the dead and even Michael Owen earned his manager 3 points, albeit well into Fergie-time. This team was supposed to struggle this year. Instead they finished 1 point from a record breaking 4th consecutive Premier League title.

Rookie of the year
Thomas Vermaelen (Arsenal) - This was the easiest pick of the bunch. Vermaelen started 33 games at center-back for Arsenal, scored 7 goals and even had one assist. His goals weren't exactly all headers either. The cold dead eyes of the dutch assassin carried Arsenal's porous back-line before finally getting injured much the same way an engine breaks down when you ask it to tow 4 thousand pounds of dead weight up a mountain. Welcome to the EPL Thomas, er, I mean, EPL, welcome to Thomas Vermaelen.

Super-Sub of the Year
Roman Pavlyuchenko (Tottenham) - he had 6 goals when used as a substitute including a stretch in February where he complained about playing time, got some playing time, scored 3 goals in 2 games as a sub, then scored 2 more when allowed to start. 'Appy 'Arry Redknapp isn't the sharpest tool in the shed.

Defensive Player of the Year
Patrice Evra (ManUtd) - Ivica Olic begs to differ but these aren't the Champions League awards. United conceded the least amount of goals in the Prem and with Rio, Vidic and Wes Brown all missing significant chunks of time and footballing skills, Patrice played 38 of 38 games. He's from Senegal so that means he gets to play for France in the World Cup.

Most Improved Player
Cesc Fabregas (Arsenal) - Now before you accuse me of being biased, take a look at the numbers. Last year he recorded 3 goals and 8 assists in the Prem and this year he scored 15 goals and had 13 assists. He did play 4 more games this year but that's still quite a jump in statistics with arguably less proven talent this year than last. The only players close to those improvements is Flourent Malouda with 12 goals and 8 assists this year compared to 6 goals and 5 assists last year and of course Mr. Wayne Rooney, 26/3 this year vs 12/7 last year.

Most Valuable Player
Wayne Rooney (Man Utd) - No player accounted for a bigger percentage of their team's offensive output this year than Wayne. He scored 27 of their 86 goals, and if you go by the book, he technically accounted for 8 game-winning-goals earning united 24 of their 85 points. He carried the team during the dog days of the year and more so than Didier Drogba was Rooney the most valuable player on his team. He leaves the season with a gimpy groin, a touchy ankle and the weight of an entire nation on his shoulders going into the World Cup. Without David Beckham, TLOCA wonders who England will blame for their World Cup failures. Until then.

Are We Tottenham In Disguise?

And are they Arsenal? Recent results have led me to question whether that favorite Gunners chant should be directed at our own team. Giving up THREE late goals to Wigan? Disgraceful. (And classic Tottenham behavior.) If this is how Arsenal are going to go out, I wish they would have signaled their intent earlier so I could have actually started studying for my finals.

Meanwhile, Spurs look amazing. I have never seen them play so well, and I can only hope that it's just a precursor to letting their fans down in some unthinkable, heartbreaking collapse that sees them take fifth place. But in the meantime, all I see is well-organized defending, crisp passing, and intelligent movement off the ball. That 2-1 scoreline was flattering... to Chelsea. It could have easily been 5-1 or 6-1. Also, it seems that JT's sway with the refs has finally come to a crashing halt, and he was deservedly sent off. People have been saying his poor form was/is a blip, but I think it signals the beginning of a steady and continuous decline. And when that happens, as a defender, the only way to stay competitive is to always receive the benefit of the doubt from the referee in tight situations and 50/50 tackles (see, e.g., Carragher, Jamie). Since Terry has gotten away with some high profile errors in recent weeks and apparently had some off-field troubles (dunno what that's about), I really doubt that he's going to get that treatment going forward. He may never be the same.

And so, in keeping with my inability to make predictions that have any relation to results in the real world, the EPL title race has been blown wide open by Tottenham Hotspur... and Paul Scholes. Yeah, didn't really see that one coming. Also, if you've eaten recently, you may want to avert your eyes from the image I've placed below:














I guess if I were a United supporter, I'd probably be tempted to do that after this. But as I'm not, I'll just go on the record and say that the only thing more repulsive in the world of soccer might be a Carlos Tevez - Franck Ribery towel fight. Yikes.

Weekly Round-Up

Unbelievable week of football. Maybe the most entertaining I've ever seen, and that says a lot, considering my bias and the fact that Arsenal only played once and got smashed. Let's take a look at what went down, in order of what I most want to talk about:

1) Roma went top of the league in the Serie A. Which is kind of amazing, especially when one considers the way they started the season; at the end of November, they had lost five of their ten league matches and accumulated a measly eleven points. They were in relegation territory. They haven't lost any of their 23 matches since then. They've defeated Inter, Juve, and Fiorentina. And yet it's been a sneaky climb to the top. Until this moment, I've seen very little in the soccer media world that has mentioned them. Roma aren't really a flashy club, and media coverage has reflected that: they don't have the superstar names of Milan, the self-promotion of Signore Mourinho, or the morbidly fascinating self-destruction of Juve. But I've always considered Roma my Serie A club of choice, although I admittedly don't follow that league as closely as a certain co-author of this blog. Nevertheless, it would be nice to see them win something. I've always rated Vucinic very highly, Totti is a living legend, Luca Toni (an excellent loan signing) deserves a Scudetto for his years of excellent service to the game and to Juan's love of flowing Italian hair, and despite having John Arne Riise and Julio Baptista draped around its neck, the club has somehow found a way to succeed (kidding, mostly, but hey, any opportunity to reference this). Juan (not ours, the Brazilian CB) and Burdisso have stopped leaking goals, which bodes well for both the Brazilian and Argentinian national squads. Even Mexes has looked decent in his limited appearances.

A lot of the credit has to go to Claudio Ranieri, perhaps the most underappreciated manager in world football. This is the man who built Chelsea into a serious force, only to have a certain "Special One" swoop in and take them to the next level. This is the man who led Juve to third place after the club spent a year in the Serie B (anyone who thinks they were finishing higher than that after a year of second division competition is nuts) and then second the next year. Since he's been fired, look how well things have worked out (OK, a little better in the last couple weeks, but still dicey). At any rate, if Roma somehow pull this off, it'll be one of the greatest turnarounds in football history, and Ranieri will get the league title his career so richly deserves. Last year, I only half-jokingly asked Juan why anyone should care about the Italian league. This is why.

2) Messi curb-stomped a depleted Arsenal and in so doing, seriously entered the discussion for GOAT (as if he weren't already there before). Pretty well-tread turf, this, so I'll just move on, but before I do: Xavi. My lord. More on this man later.

3) Man United had an awful week, especially by their standards of recent years. Dumped out of the CL (after coming out like a house on fire), possibly losing Rooney for a few more games, and then drawing against lowly Blackburn yesterday. The game against Bayern was delightful if you were a neutral (or perhaps holding a grudge of some kind, don't know why you would), but totally heartbreaking and demoralizing for United supporters. They wasted Nani's greatest performance in a United shirt (at times I thought Fergie brought back Cristiano and dressed him up like Michael Jackson) and Rooney's fragile ankle for a punch straight to the gut courtesy of one Arjen Robben. And what a punch, might I add. That strike, especially along with Robben's rapidly receding hairline, gave me deja vu.

I just have a few more things to add (cue Cartman voice): Oh nooo, your squad played well and yet was eliminated? You've suffered unfortunate injuries to key players? Awww. Your strikers somehow can't find the net, despite a wealth of chances? Oh bummerrrr. People are scoring wondergoals against you? You're losing or drawing key games at the worst possible time? Welcome to my world, welcome to my hell, Manchester United supporters.

4) Xavi orchestrated an excellent Barca performance to defeat Madrid in El Clasico for the fourth time running. This means Pep has won every meeting between the clubs since he took over. Messi got the opener and Pedro finished the second very well, but for me, Xavi was the standout player on the pitch. A lot of people talk about Messi as the second coming of Maradona, but Xavi is the second coming of... well, actually, it's hard to say. Zidane? He certainly can control a midfield like Zizou. Platini? His passes are inch-perfect like the original French maestro. But he doesn't score as much as either one. And he's 5'7" (same as Iniesta, and something I frequently forget). Hmm... Guardiola? Nah, Pep was more defensive-minded. And Xavi's better. Ah, forget it, comparisons like this are stupid. I'll just say that in twenty years, we'll be talking about current players and trying to figure out which one is the second coming of Xavi. And that's about the highest praise possible.


5) Maybe Villa midfielder James Milner John Terry-ed John Terry and slept with Mrs. Terry while she was taking some time away from the "Dad of the Year." That's the only explanation I can imagine for this absolutely horrendous challenge by the Chelsea captain in the FA Cup semifinal. Also, look at Terry inititally pretend like he's the one injured and then protest the yellow card (when instead he should have been showered with about ten reds - also, how awesome would it be if instead of just showing the red card, the referee grabbed a handful and literally threw them onto the player like confetti for particularly egregious behavior?). Keep it classy, JT.

6) Let's all laugh at Spurs and send a high-class Thai hooker to Avram Grant for overseeing Pompey's shock FA Cup semifinal victory. Relegated after Saturday's result, they somehow played their way into a second day out at Wembley a few hours ago. Well played, gentlemen. Well played, indeed.

What We Knew, Didn't Know and This Weekend

I was 90 seconds away from calling the Chelsea v. Hull City fiasco. I had even parlayed my Hull prediction into a full post from Jim with the title, "why Juan is smarter than me." Drogba left me with nothing instead. Damn you Didier.

Then Hull went and got worked over by Tottenham, more on them later, making my top table prediction a foolhardy one. Fear not Hull-ites, only 2 of your next 12 games are against top 6 teams (from last year of course). That's partly why I predicted you'd get off to a hot start, but hey, I'm just a crazy asshole anyway right! (sigh. so bitter...)


What we knew;

• Michael Owens does in fact, suck. Moreover, United's woes in front of goal is no fluke. Their goal totals in the Premiership over the last three championship years are in decline - 83, 80, and 68 last year. This is with Cristiano, of course, and he's kind of a goal-scorer. This year they're on pace for 19! Arsenal, on the other hand, is on pace for 190. This analysis makes it clear that United will struggle this year and Arsenal will break every record imagineable. Annnnnnd... done.

• TLOCA is a bit pessimistic when it comes to Arsenal. I'll come down off the ledge if we get three from a starving Portsmouth team this weekend and I'll buy you a drink if we beat United in 2 weeks. Until then, I'm enjoying the breeze up here.

• Chelsea is really annoying. FFLampard hasn't even gotten going yet.

• Adebayor loves money.

What we didn't know

• That Arsenal's Denilson and Song have been doing work in the offseason. I would have thrown Bendtner in there as well but he played as himself against Celtic. Arsenal's successes this year have come without key contributors; Arshavin has been solid but stymied in the final third and the same goes for Van Persie. Fabregas has clearly stepped up to the challenge but he tends to get off to hot starts. The EPL has and always will be about depth and the final half of the season so let's not crown Arsenal yet.
  
  
• Tottenham looks very crisp. They've created 50 scoring chances in two games and look unfortunately fluid in attack mode. Aaron Lennon looks like he's made a jump and so does Jermaine Defoe. I don't like this one bit.
  
  
• That Birmingham and Burnley would look so frisky. Birmingham surprised me with their poise and build-up against United in their 1 nil loss and Burnley did the unthinkable just a few days ago. The confounder here is that they both looked good against United so we'll have to wait a few more games to absolve them of relegation talks.
  
  
• There have been 16 games played thus far and none of them have ended in a draw. Last year, 26.3% of matches ended a draw. That's kind of weird**, no?

This weekend;

Arsenal vs. Portsmouth - No points in two games and the schedule doesn't get easier for the Mouth. They have Citeh, Bolton, Aston Villa, Everton, Wolves, Tottenham coming up - all losable games. Ouch.

Birmingham vs. Stoke - The friskies collide to see who will be crowned most frisky.

Citeh vs. Wolves - The more we all see Manchester City, the better.

Wigan vs. ManUtd - a must-win this early in the season? More on this in a future post.

Liverpool vs Aston Villa (monday) - my guess is we'll leave with no further answers about either team but thoroughly entertained.





Until then

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**In fact, the probability of 16 games all ending with a win/loss result is .0076, or, under 1 in a 100 chance. 1 in 128 to be exact.

Fancy Seeing You Here

And we're back. We apologize for any inconveniences. You see, every now and then Jim and I take life too seriously and it leads to silly things like not posting for 50 days... even when we have alot to write about. Let's get right to it -

Manchester Citeh - While they may be small time now, TLOCA doesn't think that will last for long. Relevant competition, namely ManU, Chelsea, Arsenal, and Pool will not match Citeh during this year's transfer window. Chelsea has openly stated they're not making any splashes - Abromavich may be feeling this so called global crisis, who knows, but Big Phil has everyone he wants. ManU is currently holding the Double, I can't imagine they're gonna shake things up. Arsenal's spending, or lack thereof, needs no further elaboration. That leaves Liverpool, who for all practical purposes is Citigroup in this anxious atmosphere of bank runs - trying desperately to stay afloat, succeeding with good forsight, but liable to collapse at any time.

So that leaves Citeh as the only representative of the prestigious English Premier League at the transfer window party. Anyone that has ever been good at soccer is currently linked to ManCity but if they acquire even a minimal fraction of that talent pool they'll be scary. Robinho seems as comfortable as Lil Wayne in the VIP section of a club with a grocery bag full of money. Lets just suppose they pick up Craig Bellamy, Santa Cruz, not exactly long shots, and a surprise transfer in David Villa. Can this team still be ignored? I realize they're currently sitting NewCastle right now, that is to say mid-table, and staring at 22 points, but this saudi prince and his ridiculous fat stack isn't going anywhere. And finishing NewCastle (midtable) is likely to make matters more pressing during the transfer window. I'm worried, that's all I'm sayin.

*Yes Arsenal is Bear Stearn, Chelsea is Lehmans and ManU probably JPMorgan.

Juande Ramos - well I think it's safe to say Tottenham made a mistake here. If you break up with a dude and a week later he's seen dating Gisele, you probably made a mistake. Real clearly saw something there and even though La Liga has been decided already I can see Juande sticking around for quite some time. Real Madrid just got a bit stale after success, kinda like what ManU is likely to do this year and perhaps next. Once they get Cristi and Fabregas though they'll be peach.

Speaking of Tottenham - I think they're Euro2008 stars are beginning to gel, and that's a bad thing for Arsenal. Pavyluchenko, seen to your right, is so hot right now and Luca Modric isn't slouching either. I bet they take home Carling and finish the season on a positive note. As Wayne would say, they let the beat build.

Free kick spray - this isn't getting enough attention. If it actually works it seems like a brilliant idea. I can see Euro 2012 implementing it in full and it catching fire from there. The Euro's have tried zanier things before - kinda like showing yellow to anyone that shoves during corner kicks. Granted, the corner kick crack down lasted about as long as the high strike - something I still call for to this day - but hey, the creeping must stop.

Arsenal for the Double - During my 50 day sabbatical I jotted down short notes that would remind me of a subject I wanted to write about. This was one of them. Um, so yeah, some time in previous 50 days I had a convincing argument for Arsenal at the Double. Yeah

101 great goals dot com. If you haven't stumbled on this site before, make a point to do it now. I used to scrap for highlights, now I just use this site. It's not blocked on my government computer either so I imagine you can check it out at work.

Spain and Germany get no love. The lack of coverage for La Liga and the Bundes is stark. Although La Liga is already decided the Bundes is anyone's game. TLOCA will make a point from here on out to cover more of the Bundesliga.

The Champions League Draw - One of the most impressive, anticipated match-ups for an entire round. I can't wait to watch them all. Every single tie.

In the meantime this is a fairly big weekend for the EPL, TLOCA will check back in after what should be a very entertaining sports weekend.

Tottenham Hotspur: The Anti-Arsenal

As an Arsenal supporter, the temptation to laugh at yet another hapless Spurs team has been almost impossible to suppress. But the point of this post is not really ridicule - it's to demonstrate the difference between a well-run club and one that's managed poorly. Spurs aren't the anti-Arsenal simply because the supporters of the two teams hate one another; it's because their style of management and personnel selection runs directly contrary to that of the Gunners. Not to mention the fact that those that join and leave each club seem to experience opposite effects.

At the beginning of this season, I was convinced that Tottenham had a legitimate shot at cracking the Top Four at the expense of Liverpool or Arsenal. I, like my esteemed colleague, was sure that Arsenal had missed its opportunity to strengthen the squad. Meanwhile, Spurs had made some major moves starting mid-season of the previous campaign. They brought in Juande Ramos, a fine manager with a record of success and a reputation for getting the best out of both his stars and his less-skilled players. Jonathan Woodgate, Luka Modric, Gio dos Santos, David Bentley, and Roman Pavyluchenko have followed. Though all have had some questions asked during their careers, these are (or ought to be) world class players. The same goes for some of the Spurs mainstays: Jenas (whom I despise), is nonetheless a fine player; Gareth Bale shows a lot of promise; and Ledley King, if he could ever stay healthy, would be one of England's top central defenders alongside Ferdinand and Terry.

Meanwhile, Arsenal in the past few years have bought almost no one of note aside from Samir Nasri, and even he was a bit of a gamble. The season before, they signed Eduardo and Bacary Sagna. Nobody really knew what to expect. Wenger began starting players who had formerly served as backups for global stars (Clichy for Ashley Cole; Adebayor for Henry) and told them to pick up where they left off. Lo and behold, it seemed to work. Why? We'll get to it in a moment.

Even before this, Wenger was bringing in unknown players like Patrick Vieira, Freddie Ljungberg, Robert Pires, Thierry Henry, Emmanuel Petit, Marc Overmars, Cesc Fabregas, Alexander Hleb, and Matthieu Flamini. All of these players became stars at Arsenal. Those who have left have continually run into "the Arsenal curse" and have rapidly lost fitness or generally failed to achieve the same level of personal or club success. I recognize it's far too early to say with Hleb and Flamini, but both their clubs are off to nightmare starts.

Tottenham's curse is precisely the opposite. When good players and managers come to Tottenham, they become bad. And when they leave again, they often rediscover their form. Defoe and Mido, two Spurs striking castoffs, are off to great starts with Portsmouth and Middlesbrough, respectively. Martin Jol has Hamburg off to a league-leading start in the Bundesliga (that won't last, but a Top 3 finish isn't out of the question). Again, why?

The answer lies in how each club approaches building a team. For Tottenham, each year without success brings an outcry from management and the fans to blow up the whole team and start again. And so Spurs sell off players that still have great potential and buy a new load of quality players. These players arrive over the summer and are expected to learn a brand new system and to play with brand new players immediately. Every year, Tottenham sputters out of the starting gate and picks up steam as the season goes on and players grow accustomed to each other. Hell, last year they even managed to string together enough positive results in the middle of the season to win something (the Carling Cup, but still). But in terms of the league and qualifying for the CL, it's always too little, too late. The board and the fans are unhappy again. Solid players are sold at a loss. The hot new stars on the scene are brought in. Failure begets failure.

At Arsenal, Wenger has been given freedom by the board to take the opposite approach. Change is gradual. A good illustration of this comes from his first season in charge. Wenger took over a back line of Dixon, Adams, Bould, Winterburn, and Keown. All of these players were 30+ and were used to a style of play far different from what is now associated with Arsenal. Yet Wenger retained them. And when he bought new players, it was usually one immediate impact player and then five or six for the future. He extended the careers of the veterans and maintained a true sense of team by gradually integrating the newcomers. He was the first to start using the Carling Cup as an opportunity to play youngsters alongside and against first team regulars. Though the pace of this adaptation has necessarily sped up in recent years, the principle remains the same.

Tottenham would do well to emulate this example. Ramos is a fine manager. With time, I believe he can identify the players that will constitute a "heart and soul" base of the squad and add to it. But this means no board hysteria when Tottenham rally to finish 6th this season. No calls for a shake-up, no pressing of the panic button. Listening to the fans is often a good thing, but when the voices of frustrated supporters are given too much consideration (e.g. Tottenham, Newcastle, West Ham), you end up with the inmates running the asylum. And the bottom line remains that you can't buy a league title. (Unless you're Chelsea, and then you get two for your money. But that's a whole other story.)

[Note: I originally drafted this a couple days ago. Since then, Wenger and Ferguson have come out and discussed this issue. Love the picture in that article. And Ramos himself came out and begged for patience. Though I personally don't mind seeing Tottenham embarrass themselves every year, I think Spurs fans would do well to listen.]

The Five Best Derbies

This one won't be easy, but I think we can immediately rule out the worst one, and that's Derby County. Thank you, thank you, I'll be here all week.

I've determined there are probably nine or ten big derbies that are truly deserving of note, but in the interest of time, I've whittled it down to five. We can talk about the big rivalries between different cities (Inter-Juve, Man U-Liverpool, etc.) later, so in the meantime, here's my countdown:

Barely missing the cut: Derby della Capitale (Roma vs. Lazio), The Manchester Derby (Manchester United vs. Manchester City), Derby della Mole (Juventus vs. Torino), Galatasaray vs. Fenerbahce, Olympiacos vs. Panathinaikos.


5. El Derbi Madrileno (Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid): This spot could have easily gone to any of the teams listed above (and a few not mentioned), but it goes to Madrid for perfectly encapsulating what intercity rivalries are all about. On the one side, you have the giants of world football, a team overflowing with trophies and praise. They're the bandwagon team that the rest of the country either loves or loves to hate, the club supported by the rich and their stadium is filled with supporters who consistently vote conservatively. Opposing them is a club playing next door to a brewery which, while successful, will always live in the shadow of its rival. This team draws no support outside its home city, and instead is loved by the leftist, rebellious working class. I don't have to tell you which is which. In terms of trophies, Atletico have nothing to be ashamed of (9 Titles, 9 Copa del Rey), but look like chumps compared to Los Blancos (30 Titles, 17 Copa del Rey, 9 European Cups). Also, you know it's a good rivalry when one team calls itself "Los Blancos" because its uniforms are white and the other starts referring to itself as "Los Indios," not for any real reason, but just to be in direct opposition.

4. The Merseyside Derby (Liverpool vs. Everton): Where this one ranks really depends on what you're looking for in a derby. Do you want bitter hatred between the two fan bases and a do-or-die environment on the field? Or do you want an atmosphere of mutual respect and pride in one's shared city? Because if it's the latter, this one is the best. In fact, when there's violence, it's usually under bizarre circumstances such as the 1980 FA Cup when supporters of the two teams actually joined together to attack fans from other clubs. Now that's unity. In terms of silverware, Liverpool has everyone in England beat (18 Titles, 7 FA Cups, 5 European Cups), but Everton are no slouches with 9 Titles and 5 FA Cups of their own. The rivalry gets docked a few points due to the fact that it has been stripped of its meaningfulness in the last few decades (neither team has won the league since 1990) But in the end, it's all about two storied clubs, two historic grounds (Liverpool have been at Anfield and Everton at Goodison Park since 1892!), and a universal love of their home city. If you're not one for fighting or chanting death threats, it doesn't get any better than this.

3. The North London Derby (Arsenal vs. Tottenham Hotspur): It was hard to put this one above Liverpool and Everton, but it currently gets the nod because of the consistent match quality and importance. Though it's been a largely one-sided affair this decade, Tottenham have recently raised the bar through competitive displays and their 5-1 beatdown of the Gunners in the Carling Cup. Both sets of supporters will also not soon forget the 2005-2006 season, when Arsenal waited until the last day of the season to overtake Spurs in the all-important fourth place spot. In terms of intensity, this rivalry is second to none; Gooners keep track of when Tottenham can no longer finish above them in the league and celebrate "St. Totteringham's Day" when it arrives, while Spurs fans could hardly wait to rejoice in their victory over Arsenal (it was only the Carling semifinal!) with commemorative DVDs and coffee mugs. You also know things are bitter between the two sides when you can refer to "Judas" in a football context and everyone in London immediately knows who you're talking about. Both sides have an impressive trophy cabinet (13 Titles, 10 FA Cups for Arsenal; 2 Titles, 8 FA Cups for Tottenham), and Spurs were able to add to it with their Carling Cup victory this season. If Arsenal don't one-up them with the league or the CL this season, you can bet the Gunners will be hearing about it for years.

2. Derby della Madonnina (Milan vs. Internazionale): Two heavyweights of world soccer, this would be a mouthwatering match under any circumstances. Add to it the fact that the two clubs share a city AND a stadium, and now you're really talking. This rivalry is so intense that it even spilled over into the 1990 World Cup when Dutch/AC Milan legends Marco van Basten, Frank Rijkaard, and Rudd Gullit faced German/Inter heroes Jurgen Klinsmann, Lothar Matthaus, and Andreas Brehme in the San Siro. When Germany won, the Italian Inter fans celebrated as though their club had triumphed. In terms of world class players, it would very difficult to top this one, and when it comes to trophies between the two sides, the numbers are staggering (Milan with 17 Titles, 5 Coppa Italia, 7 European Cups and Inter with 15 Titles, 5 Coppa Italia, and 2 European Cups). The fact that there's a hint of politics involved (Inter for the right, Milan for the left) makes the matches even more weighty, and meetings between the two have been known to get ugly (see picture above and the 2004-2005 Champions League). With Inter fighting for the title and Milan battling for fourth, the next meeting (May 4) is almost guaransheed to be a thriller.

1. The Old Firm (Celtic vs. Rangers): You could make a case for any of the rivalries I've mentioned as the best, but I think this one is truly deserving. Because while Milan and Inter are two of the best teams in Italian football, Celtic and Rangers ARE Scottish football. Simply put, there is no challenge to their consistent dominance of their league, and every year they're gunning for the title. These teams are not only the best (Celtic have 41 Titles, 34 Scottish Cups, 1 European Cup and Rangers have a mind-boggling 51 Titles and 31 Scottish Cups), but also sit right across Glasgow from one another. They don't just divide the city, either; both clubs draw support from all over Scotland, the British Isles, and the world at large. And if other derbies have a trickle of political strife to them, this one has a waterfall. When the Old Firm play one another, it's not just Rangers vs. Celtic, it's Protestant vs. Catholic, UDA vs. IRA, Britain vs. Ireland, and Loyalism vs. Independence. Pretty heavy stuff for a football match. Always important, always quality, and always controversial, this is the best derby in the world.

Weekend Preview

Looking ahead to the biggest matchups in La Liga, Serie A, and the FA Cup, respectively.

SPAIN

Real Madrid (1st) vs. Villareal (3rd). Los Merengues passed their first test of the second half with flying colors, edging a strong Atletico side 2-nil last weekend. Atletico's front partnership of Forlan and Aguero got a lot of the headlines going in, but it was Real's aging-like-fine-wine strikeforce of Raul and van Nistelrooy that decided the match. Oh, and Iker Casillas made two or three incredible saves (yawn) to run his clean sheet record to six matches straight in La Liga. Villareal, meanwhile, are quietly having a great season. They've been injury-free all year (oh snap, there's a jinx waiting to happen), and are putting a strong challenge in to regain Champions League football, something they've gone without for two seasons. Nihat has been in fine form up front, Pires is showing he's got something left in the tank, and the most talented young American (er, Italian... what kind of crap is this) in world soccer has 8 goals in La Liga competition.

The verdict: Sorry, Villareal. Real Madrid have been completely dominant at the Bernabeu, scoring 23, conceding 7, and winning all 9 games played. Count on them to sink el Submarino Amarillo, but Iker really can't keep this up, can he? Real Madrid 2 - 1 Villareal.

ITALY

Udinese (5th) vs. Inter Milan (1st). Poor Udinese. Playing well all season, they're now faced by the second of two Milan juggernauts in two weeks. But just because they've become Job for the scheduling gods, doesn't mean there's not hope. Last week, Inter struggled mightily against a mediocre (that's charitable) Parma side. In fact, they had no business DRAWING that game, let alone winning it. Instead, a harsh 88th minute penalty for handball was converted by Ibrahimovic, who then won it with an excellently controlled ball in injury time. Udinese were also extremely unlucky to lose last week, defending well, but falling victim to poor refereeing decisions and then Gilardino's extra time strike.

The verdict: Things probably won't get any better for Udinese. Fiorentina is sitting in what was their fourth place spot, and look like a sheed to defeat lowly Empoli. Inter can't afford to drop points with Roma churning out results, and they won't. Udinese 0 - 1 Inter.

ENGLAND

Manchester United vs. Tottenham Hotspur (FA Cup 4th Round). Tottenham dismantled (there's no other word for it) the old enemy on Tuesday in front of a giddy White Hart Lane. To get to this fixture, new manager Juande Ramos took them past a solid Reading side without conceding a goal (!). It's for good reason, then, that many Spurs fans are proclaiming the corner turned. Not so fast, though. Their next three fixtures, including this one, are: away to Man U, away to Everton, and home to Man U. That's brutal. If they get out of that stretch with one win, I'll be convinced they're finally on track.

The verdict: Scoring is never a problem for Spurs; they're only two behind (44) leaders Man U and Arsenal (46) in the league. However, they can't stop conceding. On Tuesday, even when playing near-perfectly, they couldn't keep a clean sheet. Ronaldo, Rooney, and Tevez aren't going to let them, either. Man U 3 - 1 Spurs.

Tottenham vs. Arsenal

Carling Cup Semifinal, Second Leg.

A trip to Wembley is a trip to Wembley. That's all I have to say to those who claim the Carling Cup is not worth the concern of a big club. That's nonsense, and as everyone knows, the only time a cup "doesn't matter" is when your club hasn't won it. The opportunity to take the kids to another final is here, but this is going to be the first game of the season when the odds are stacked firmly against the Gunners.

Before their second league meeting, I went against the conventional predictions of a comfortable victory for Arsenal on my other blog. Sure enough, it was a close game that took a brilliant Almunia penalty save and an incredible header from Bendtner on his first touch of the match to win it. (Please note that this is probably the only occasion on which I've predicted a result perfectly, hence the tooting of mine own horn.) Arsenal again kept their unbeaten run against the old foe alive when Theo Walcott scored the luckiest (or unluckiest, depending on your perspective) late equalizer in the first leg.

History is clearly on the side of the Gunners, who won in convincing fashion in this same fixture last year. It's also on their side in that Tottenham have consistently failed to win against Arsenal in this century. That's right. 1999. In a period spanning nine years and 21 matches in all competitions, Spurs have yet to take three points.

However, Spurs have to be massive favorites to end this drought. There's (technically) no possibility of a draw; this one will go to penalties if necessary. They're at home. They're playing very good football. Aside from the three-headed Roonaldez monster of Man U, there isn't a strike force with a better understanding than Keano the Younger and Berba. Arsenal are most likely fielding a starting lineup bereft of Cesc Machine, Mattuso, Ade 3000, van Injured, SuperTom, Arcade Fire, Ashley Who?, Sideshow Bob, and England's #1, and though that's not to say some of the aforementioned won't make a bench appearance, knowing Wenger, he'll stick with the kids for as long as possible.

That all said, I'm still going to refrain from making a prediction even though Arsenal definitely shouldn't win this match. Tottenham are the most infamous chokers in the Premiership and consistently the victims of horrible fortune (lasagna, anyone?), especially when their North London neighbors are involved. On a final note, I, for one, have never seen Arsenal lose to Spurs, and though this is an "unimportant" cup with the B squad, that won't lessen the sting if they do.